The good, the Bad and the Ugly.




After rallying above 1.33 only the week before last the GBPUSD is under pressure again and

back below 1.3000 as the new week gets underway. The prospect that Teresa May’s

transitional deal will once again not pass parliament tomorrow is of course at the heart of

this latest relapse. That coupled with as of yet, still no compromise from the EU is what has

jangled the markets nerves again.


In reality whilst parliament will surely vote down any chance of a no deal Brexit on the 14th

even if May’s bill fails to pass, that doesn’t necessarily mean the March 29th deadline will be

postponed. Even if the UK desires it, the 27 EU nations will have to unanimously agree to

any extension and outcome uncertainty over that is still surely a problem for the pound. In

any case and as I already noted, long before any press articles last weekend, there may be a

hefty price to pay for an article 50 extension.


So, unsurprisingly the pound is under pressure again and that’s partly down to the dollar too

of course. However, the whole G10 market vista is not exactly one dimensional in dollar

terms because the JPY is relatively strong as well. Whilst we can possibly thank the equity

markets for that most immediately, both the EUR and GBP that are indeed victims of their

own current circumstance, and perhaps more so than the dollar is victor of its own. A fact

endorsed by what was a pretty average US employment report on Friday and yet the dollar

didn’t weaken much at all on the news; news which showed a big miss on the number of US

jobs created in February.


However, what that US employment data did still ensure on Friday; was that the dollar was

unable to make further gains ahead of the weekend. The EURUSD remained comfortably

above that 1.1187 level and the USD index edged backwards a little as it continued to reject

any break above 97.71.


As to what pans out this week? Well, its certainly all eyes on the UK again for sure with the

parliamentary process seemingly one step closer to an outcome. Under such circumstances

the dollar may take something of a backseat this week. Consequently, its surely geopolitics

that will be the driving force for any of the moves to come, be that from Brexit news, or that

surrounding the US/China trade discussions.


What I can tell you is that some of the major interbank players are advocating buying the

pound right now in anticipation that it will be ‘alright on the night’. Whilst they might be

right of course, its partly the squeezing of those positions that’s helped to push the currency

back again in recent days.


Personally speaking, I have long since given up on making assumptions when it comes to all

this and prefer to not to pin risk to something that I surely cannot quantify. What I think is

safe to assume, is that we could see some volatile moves as the week’s events unfold. The

process might be closer to its conclusion now, but from what I can see there are still many

potential outcome scenarios left on the table, some good, some bad and some just

downright ugly!


Important Economic Releases Due this week

11/03- 12.30pm US January advanced retail sales

12/03- 9.30am UK January Industrial and Manufacturing Output

12/03- 10.00am US NFIB small business optimism index

12/03- 12.30pm US February CPI report

13/03- 12.30pm Preliminary reading of US January Durable good orders

14/03- 2.00pm US January New Home Sales

15/03- 3.30am- Bank of Japan Monetary policy decision

15/03- 10.00am Eurozone- Final CPI inflation reading for February

15/03- US University of Michigan March Consumer Sentiment Index

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