The dollar continued to push higher last week and is still very much on the front foot as this
week gets underway, with the USD index back above 98 this morning. The worst performing
currency of last week was the GBP which lost ground across the board as it dawns on the
markets that the six month Brexit extension was not actually the elixir for the currency that
many first thought it to be.
Consequently, the GBPUSD is edging its way ever closer to last year’s lows at 1.2441 and the
GBPEUR has given up its most recent gains too. The GBPEUR has fallen closer to 1.14 this
morning and its now threatening its 200dma (daily moving average) which currently resides
at 1.1375, with the 100 WMA (weekly moving average) lurking not far behind that, at
1.1320. Whilst both of those levels look like providing technical support, it will still require
some really fresh positive news to set up any kind of significant rebound.
Despite the moves lower in the GBPEUR, the marked sell off in the GBPUSD surely
undermined the EURUSD too which closed below 1.1160 on Friday. That wasn’t technically,
exactly a positive close on the week either. However, irrespective of what the GBP does,
there’s still someone seemingly content to soak up and slow the downside flow on the
EURUSD, even if the fundamentals are skewed against it. This is very much in tune with
what I mentioned last week and hence I shall continue to keep everything peeled when it
comes to clearer indications of any significant ‘Reserve’ management flow.
The AUD has been the best performer overnight following the news that the Liberal-
National coalition has been returned to power in the general elections there. As to how the
AUD progresses from here could well rest with whatever the RBA governor, Philip Lowe has
to say in his speech scheduled for tomorrow (see timetable below).
Elsewhere overnight WTI has lifted towards $64 a barrel following news that Saudi Arabia is
not of a mind to increase production anytime this year. Unsurprisingly, that news has
helped to lift US equity futures too ahead of their opening later on. However, the Chinese
markets are nevertheless lower today as all eyes turn to the important manufacturing PMI
data due at the end of the month.
Higher US equity futures have helped the JPY to weaken a little overnight too, with the
USDJPY re-establishing itself back above 110 in Asian trading and that’s also been assisted
by the Nikkei, which has outperformed all except the Indian markets. Those have surged on
the expectation of a win for Narendra Modi’s ruling coalition in the general election there
on the 23 rd May.
As far as the USDJPY is concerned, I should perhaps remember that we do have quite a few
short dollar positions on that one now and the knives will get sharpened for those if the
price starts to move back above the 200dma (daily moving average) which is currently just
shy of 111.50, at 111.44.
Coincidentally, the 23 rd May isn’t the only election on the market’s radar as of course that is
also the day of the European parliamentary elections. Nothing has changed on the outlook
here for that with the Tory’s (and Labour) both expected to fall under the Brexit party’s
sword. Ahead of the this the pound is still under pressure with the 3 rd June being likely more important to its immediate destination.
Ahead of that this week there will doubtless be more water flowing under the Brexit bridge
with some pointless indicative votes looking likely in the interim. However, unless TM can
wave some sort of magic wand, victory on her 4 th attempt looks as likely as Afghanistan
winning the soon to commence cricket world cup.
Surely home advantage will give us the edge in that contest and, at least some sort of
victory this summer (apart from the Champions league of course), after we finished dead
last in the Eurovision- quell surprise! Sadly, the ‘noble’ game is a sport we never managed
to export outside of the commonwealth. Europe doesn’t really play the game do they?
Granted there is a French version of sorts, but that’s not really cricket is it!
Important Economic Releases Due This Week
21/05- 2.30am RBA Releases minutes from May policy meeting
21/05- 3.15am RBA Governor Lowe Speech from Brisbane
22/05- ECB President Mario Draghi Speech from Frankfurt
22/05- 9.30am UK April CPI, RPI and PPI Inflation Reports
22/05- 7.00pm US- Fed Releases minutes from May 1 st Policy Meeting
23/05- 9.00am German IFO May Business climate index
23/05- 12.30pm ECB Releases minutes from April Policy meeting
24/05- 12.30am Japan April National CPI Inflation Report
24/05- 9.30am UK April Retail Sales Report
24/05- 1.30pm US April Durable Goods Orders