Chinese data surprises to the upside



The markets reacted positively overnight to some important Chinese data showing that the

economy there might just be on the rebound. The latest manufacturing PMI data came out

at 50.5 which was higher than the reading of 49.2 recorded in February and well above the

markets consensus of around 49.6. In addition, the privately assessed the Caixin PMI

number for March also beat the street too, coming in at 50.8. Its important to note that

anything above 50 in this kind of data signifies expansion.


So, its all good news out of China immediately today and that set the tone for a risk on rally

in Asia overnight and ensured that the European markets will also open higher this morning

as the second quarter gets underway. Having said that, given where we are in the calendar

today, I am not sure if the markets have entirely bought into these latest numbers from the

Chinese and whilst certainly positive, will probably still require further confirmation.


However, JPY has nevertheless weakened slightly on the news, but we are talking baby pips

here so far and the dollar overall has barely budged, especially against the EUR, but that’s in

stasis most of the time these days anyway! In any case the European data, going forward is

surely of much more importance for the single currency. The combination of a slightly

weaker JPY and upside traction for global stock markets is weighing on gold again this

morning as that pushes slightly lower in early trading.


The pound managed to remain above the 1.30 handle overnight and has lifted this morning,

back closer towards 1.31 as optimism remains largely intact that somehow parliament will

manage to reach some sort of positive outcome this week. As far as I am concerned I remain

highly sceptical given their track record of recent weeks. I said on Friday that it was; ‘Strike

three and you’re out’ for May, but could it be that she might still be afforded yet another

chance with her transitional deal?


I sincerely hope not quite honestly because she’s already made a mockery of the whole

process anyway. I think it’s a racing certainty that she’s on her way to the back benches

sooner than later now and as I have said before; the chances of a general election are surely

increasing by the day?


For me that is potentially just as toxic for the pound as a no deal Brexit if it does lead to a

Labour government. Add the two together and you have what I can only describe as the

perfect storm for the currency. Still as they say; a week in politics is a long time. Indeed, an

interminably long time for all us who have to sit through it!


Turning back to the Chinese data earlier today, which has kicked off a week that sees a

whole raft of important releases and events, as is usual for the first week of any new month.

The highlight is of course the latest US unemployment report on Friday, but there’s quite a

few moving parts prior to that which could have an impact.


The RBA policy decision, where no change is expected early tomorrow morning might be

interesting, especially if the Australian central bank chooses to look though this latest


Chinese data. Beyond that, the USD is still largely in the driving seat, but so far yet to make

any headway past that important level I showed you all again on Friday.


Meanwhile, the pound will continue to grab the lion’s share of any currency volatility that is

out there in the system as indeed has been the case for many a week now and from a

‘headline trading’ perspective still very much the one to focus on. However, its again

important not to be fooled into thinking there’s yet any certainty over long term direction

for the currency, especially not today at any rate!


Important Economic Releases Due this week

01/04- 9.30am UK March Manufacturing PMI

01/04- 10am Eurozone February Unemployment report

01/04- 10am Eurozone March CPI Estimate

01/04- 1.30pm US February Advanced Retail Sales report

01/04- 3.00pm US March ISM Manufacturing Index

02/04- 4.30am Australian RBA Monetary Policy Decision

(benchmark rate expected to be unchanged at 1.50%)

02/04- 1.30pm US February Durable Goods Orders

03/04- 9.30am UK March Services PMI

03/04- 1.15pm US ADP March Private Payroll Report

04/04- 12.30pm ECB publishes March Policy Meeting Minutes

05/04- 1.30pm Canadian March Unemployment Report

05/04- 1.30pm US March Unemployment Report

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